Analysis of the impact of the Association Agreement between Andorra and the EU

How would associating with the European Union impact Andorra? Would it be good for the Andorran economy? Would it affect all economic sectors in the same way? From when would the most significant effects begin to be felt? And would the Andorran State be any less sovereign? Would the agreement force it to raise taxes? Would the population grow much more with the agreement than without it? And how would the agreement affect public safety? And mobility? And urban growth? And housing? What would the association agreement cost the public finances? And, in fact, what does it mean to associate with the EU? Is it the same as being a member state but without the right to vote in the European Parliament, or is it something completely different?

This research project aims to provide the most solid answers to all these questions. To do so, we have assembled a team of eight researchers from KSNET and AR+I who specialize in public policy evaluation. We have selected the most pertinent and relevant questions that could be answered using reliable data. We studied and selected the methodology that gave us the greatest guarantees for explaining the effects of the association agreement on Andorra. We selected the best available data to answer each question. Along the way, we also made a series of fundamental decisions to minimize the uncertainty inherent in any twenty-five-year prospective analysis. And, above all, we have approached the issue without preconceptions, without expecting certain results: we have simply chosen the most solid methodology we could build and have let ourselves be surprised by the results obtained.

The result of all this is an analysis of the impact of the association agreement: we have studied how the country would fare if it did not sign the agreement and how it would fare if it did, and we have measured the difference between the two Andorras for more than fifty variables. We present all of this in full detail—for those who want all the details and wish to discuss or replicate the research findings—but also provide a concise and accessible summary in the conclusions. In fact, on page 10 you will find three different reading paths so that everyone can make the study their own. We recommend that you start right there.

Analysis of the Impact of the Andorra-European Union Association Agreement (e-book)

Annex 1: Association Agreement between Andorra and the European Union: authentic English version (presentation of the agreement in several documents, structured by the agreement's different components)

Annex 2: Andorra - European Union Association Agreement: translation into Catalan (presentation of the agreement in several documents, structured by the different components of the agreement)

Annex 3: Detailed analysis of the scope of the association agreement

Annex 4: Detailed results of the impact of the association agreement on the entire Andorran economy

Annex 5: Detailed results of the impact of the association agreement on the different sectors of the Andorran economy

Annex 6: BD_pob and BD_immi (population and immigration databases for Andorra) (available soon)

Annex 7: BD_seg (security database for Andorra) (available soon)

Annex 8: Economic Impact Study of the Association Agreement between the Principality of Andorra and the European Union: Full version of the report prepared by KSNET

Annex 9: Supporting document (PowerPoint) for the impact study presentation

Annex 10: Video of the public presentation of the impact study

Summaries of the study in Catalan, Spanish, French, and English (available soon)